Informasi Pelaut Terbaru tentang Security Forecast
Security Forecast
As 2013 rumbles along what are seen as being the key maritime security threats for the year? While the frequency of pirate attacks off Somalia has dropped, if they learn to adapt there will be surprises ahead – and given that they are billed as being some of the most wily, cunning foes around, the chances are high that they will be breaking through the thin blue line of private security soon.
According to the latest analysis to emerge, the likely threats to maritime security are issues in the following problem areas:
Nigeria: An increase in Gulf of Guinea piracy is understood to be likely in the next three months. With an increase in the capabilities of pirate groups off the Gulf of Guinea and limited security in the West African seas, piracy risks are likely to grow. Due to the very limited capabilities of regional navies including the major player, the Nigerian Navy, and, unlike the seas off Somalia, the lack of an international maritime presence, tankers are vulnerable to oil theft.
Somali piracy in 2013: The multi-million dollar question is what will happen next. Some want to believe the threat of Somali pirates has subsided, but the root causes remain. While some high profile pirates may have decided to renounce piracy, there are many more waiting to step into their Swarovski encrusted flip flops. The money is still good, and Somalia is still a place where alternatives are hard to find. The rise of Somali piracy 2.0 looks distinctly possible.
South East Asia: There has been a steady rise in the number of attacks around South East Asia. Piracy in the region is a serious problem, and while it was eclipsed for a while by the new Somali iteration, it is firmly back on the maritime security radar and is likely to pose further problems into 2013.
New potential problem areas are emerging as North Africa and Syria throw up potentially serious threats to maritime trade. Lawlessness, desperation and instability are the key drivers of maritime crime, and so it will be interesting to see how these threats eventually manifest themselves.
Modern maritime piracy has always been considered a "tropical disease", as it is 99.9% confined between the Tropics of Cancer and Capricorn. The potential shift northwards, however, could see a fascinating new tide of maritime criminality…be careful out there, wherever "there" may be.
== fm shiptalk ===
Security Forecast
As 2013 rumbles along what are seen as being the key maritime security threats for the year? While the frequency of pirate attacks off Somalia has dropped, if they learn to adapt there will be surprises ahead – and given that they are billed as being some of the most wily, cunning foes around, the chances are high that they will be breaking through the thin blue line of private security soon.
According to the latest analysis to emerge, the likely threats to maritime security are issues in the following problem areas:
Nigeria: An increase in Gulf of Guinea piracy is understood to be likely in the next three months. With an increase in the capabilities of pirate groups off the Gulf of Guinea and limited security in the West African seas, piracy risks are likely to grow. Due to the very limited capabilities of regional navies including the major player, the Nigerian Navy, and, unlike the seas off Somalia, the lack of an international maritime presence, tankers are vulnerable to oil theft.
Somali piracy in 2013: The multi-million dollar question is what will happen next. Some want to believe the threat of Somali pirates has subsided, but the root causes remain. While some high profile pirates may have decided to renounce piracy, there are many more waiting to step into their Swarovski encrusted flip flops. The money is still good, and Somalia is still a place where alternatives are hard to find. The rise of Somali piracy 2.0 looks distinctly possible.
South East Asia: There has been a steady rise in the number of attacks around South East Asia. Piracy in the region is a serious problem, and while it was eclipsed for a while by the new Somali iteration, it is firmly back on the maritime security radar and is likely to pose further problems into 2013.
New potential problem areas are emerging as North Africa and Syria throw up potentially serious threats to maritime trade. Lawlessness, desperation and instability are the key drivers of maritime crime, and so it will be interesting to see how these threats eventually manifest themselves.
Modern maritime piracy has always been considered a "tropical disease", as it is 99.9% confined between the Tropics of Cancer and Capricorn. The potential shift northwards, however, could see a fascinating new tide of maritime criminality…be careful out there, wherever "there" may be.
== fm shiptalk ===
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